Continuity despite crises: Germany's euro policy in the light of the pandemic, war and inflation

After a decade of reforming and stabilising the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), it has been put to a triple test: the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the return of inflation have posed serious challenges to the eurozone that call for policy responses. Against the background of recent advances in European integration theory, we assess whether and how these challenges have led to a change in the EMU policy of the eurozone's most powerful member, Germany. We conceptualise three ideal-typical policy options for Germany to deal with EMU's challenges and we search for traces of policy learning from past eurozone crisis management. On the basis of semi-structured interviews with German political elites, we cannot identify any significant change in Germany's EMU policy. We conclude that the unwavering continuity of Germany's euro policy makes further substantial integration in EMU unlikely. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The Evolution of Nominal Convergence After Accession to The European Union. The Case of Romania

Economic and Monetary Union is the result of progressive economic integration that includes collective regulation for the free movement of goods, services, labor, capital, and products. Economic and Monetary Union presupposes a common currency and market, but also a monetary policy coordinated by the European Central Bank, which has the role of ensuring economic stability. In this context, the countries wishing to join must be prepared to deal with possible economic imbalances, this being possible through the existence of a high level of economic development. Through this paper, we want to identify the evolution of the nominal convergence criteria established by the provisions of the Maastricht Treaty to identify the level of readiness of the Romanian economy for integration into the Economic and Monetary Union.

Silent revolution/passive revolution: Europe's COVID-19 recovery plan and green deal

Do the EU Recovery Plan and Green Deal (EGD) break with disciplinary neoliberalism? Eschewing binary 'yes or no' answers, this article draws on Gramsci's idea of passive revolution as 'progressive restoration' to analyse these important developments in the European political economy. It offers a balance sheet of 'progressive' and 'restorative' elements and argues that these cohere in an integral response to geopolitical pressure and legitimation problems by the 'Piedmont of Europe' – Germany's power bloc. A concluding section argues that the most significant changes engendered by these initiatives may not reside in the substance in policy but rather in how policy is carried out – in the form. It seems that it is becoming increasingly difficult to depoliticize disciplinary neoliberal governance in Europe. Future research is needed on the nature and implications of this for theory and (progressive) practice. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Globalizations is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

What Is the European Central Bank Supposed to Do? Recommending a Review of the ECB as anInstitution in Light of Two Decades of Crisis

In July 2021, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a new monetary policy strategy, the first time in 17 years that it had undertaken a review of its monetary policy. In the intervening time, the world - and the economic challenges facing the ECB - have changed immensely but partly as a result of the ECB's own maneuvering. In particular, monetary policy has been relied upon for every single malaise facing the global economy, including and up to the coronavirus pandemic. This paper argues that a review of central banks as an institutional mechanism in general, and in particular the ECB, was overdue but should not have been limited to policies;instead, an opportunity was missed to have an institutional review to examine whether or not it has been performing as intended. In particular, the vast experiment of unconventional monetary policy/issuance should have been more scrutinized from an institutional level as it appears to have contributed to the current problems the European economy faces. Europe and the ECB would be well served by taking stock of its actions over the past two decades and especially during the era of unconventional monetary policy to find a sustainable route forward.

Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group

The influence of recent global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war on the variability of major macroeconomic trends not only shows synchronized behavior across economies but also induces similar policy responses to counter these shocks. The purpose of this article is to explore the transmission of inflation among the G20 economies and evaluate its contribution to domestic inflation. To this end, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover approach. The results that emerge from unconditional analysis reveal stark dissimilarities in inflation spillover patterns between advanced and emerging economies. Advanced economies are subject to higher spillover rates and thereby more exposed to global shocks compared to their emerging counterparts. Inflation in emerging countries is mainly derived from idiosyncratic shocks, while global shocks have only a modest influence on domestic inflation. In addition, bilateral spillovers among the G20 members show that the average pairwise directional spillovers between emerging economies are lower compared to advanced economies. The results pertaining to the spillover dynamics, on the other hand, show that total inflation spillover has a clear upward trend, indicating that the overall interconnectedness between G20 countries is increasing over time. Moreover, the estimates of spillover dynamics show a growing influence of received inflation spillovers from external shocks in both advanced and emerging economies. Policymakers in advanced economies are expected to respond to global shocks to mitigate the influence of spillovers, which is essential for economies that display high spillovers and turn out to be net receivers of shocks. However, public agencies in emerging economies should concentrate more on internal shocks to control inflation while not ignoring global shocks.

A Tale of Two Crisis: The Impact of EU Response to the Pandemic—The Case of Italy

The COVID-19 pandemic had enormous health, economic and political consequences. In this article we argue that, after some initial confusion, the European Commission and European Central Bank, contrary to what had happened with the Euro-zone crisis, have profoundly altered their policies to address the dire consequences of the pandemic. The analysis is predicated around the case of Italy, which was the first country to face the spreading of the virus among its population as well as one of the most seriously hit in both health and economic terms. As underlined below, also the Italian political panorama has been substantially altered by both the crisis and the intervention of the EU in it. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis.

We study the impact of recent crisis episodes viz. the Great Recession of 2007-09, the Euro Area crisis of 2010-12 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-21 on the Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) of China and India using data from January, 1986 till June, 2021. A Markov-switching (MS) analysis is applied to discern economy-specific cycles/regimes and common cycles/regimes in the growth rates of the economies. We apply the univariate MS Autoregressive (MS-AR) model to characterize country-specific negative growth, moderate growth and high growth regimes of China and India. We examine the extent of overlap of the identified regimes with the Great Recession, the Eurozone crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Thereafter, we study the regimes depicting common phases in growth rates of China-India and China-India-US by using multivariate MS Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) models. The multivariate analysis shows the presence of common negative growth during the turbulent periods during the study period. These results can be explained by the existence of strong trade and financial linkages between the two EMEs and the Advanced economies. The pandemic triggered a recession in the Chinese, Indian and U.S. economies and its impact on growth is much worse than the Great Recession and the Eurozone crises.

Explaining the response of the ECB to the COVID-19 related economic crisis: inter-crisis and intra-crisis learning

The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have placed a renewed strain on the economic governance of the European Union (EU). The European Central Bank (ECB) was a key player in the EU's response to the crisis induced by the pandemic. This paper adopts a theoretical approach focused on policy learning to explain how and why the ECB responded to the crisis in 2020–2021. By drawing on speeches, newspaper articles and interviews with policy-makers, the paper finds that the ECB was able to rely on earlier crisis experiences in the euro area in forming its response to the pandemic crisis. Although the sovereign debt crisis and the pandemic crisis had both similarities and differences from one another, the ECB was able to engage in inter-crisis and intra-crisis learning. Its learning concerned objectives, instruments as well as an awareness that timely and forceful response was crucial, so that the member states and other EU institutions had time to act. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Who's to blame for Greece?: Life after bankruptcy: Between optimism and substandard growth

This expanded and enlarged third edition of Theodore Pelagidis and Michael Mitsopoulos' popular Who's to Blame for Greece? covers almost a decade of Greece's economic crisis from 2009 to 2019, as well as recent developments in the first months of 2020. It provides an overview of recent developments in the Greek economy and outlines the most important obstacles to a return to robust and sustainable growth rates. It considers the new optimism being developed in Greece after the crisis, but also the policy challenges facing Greece emanating from a deeply hurt economy in the aftermath of the crisis and the structural problems that persist. The book covers the most recent issues that affect the Greek economy including, the migration crisis at the borders with Turkey as well as a faltering global economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. This book will appeal to researchers, practitioners and policy makers interested in the EU and the political economy of Greece and offers valuable updates on the second edition. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.

2023 Outlook of Economy and Real Estate Markets in Japan

[...]the 2022 real estate transaction market in Japan was favorable in terms of both prices and transaction volume. Because the Overnight Index Swap ("OIS") 10-year rate of the Japanese Yen (not subject to the BOJ's YCC) is trading at a level close to 0.9%, and if the market is believed to consider the appropriate level of the long-term interest rate for the Japanese yen to be much higher than 0.5%, if JGB's yield continues to remain at around 0.5% level, the possibility of further policy revisions by BOJ will increase. The positive spiral of stable price increases with stable wage growth, which the government and BOJ assume as precondition for price stability, is not functioning, raising concerns about a downturn in the Japanese economy due to a decline in personal consumption. Because of this mixed economic picture, unless extreme conditions such as a sharp acceleration of price hikes occur, it is unlikely that a major change in monetary policy, i.e., a halt in monetary easing, will be implemented before the change of the BOJ Governor scheduled for April 2023. According to data disclosed by Sanko Estate, a major leasing broker in Japan, the vacancy rate for large-scale buildings (standard floor size: over 7,000 sqf) in the 23 wards of Tokyo, which was at its lowest level of 0.69% in the first quarter of 2020, has risen to 4.52% as of November 2022 due to cancellation of floors as a result of behavioral restrictions caused by COVID-19, reduction in corporate activities, and changes in the way offices are used due to the spread of work-from-home.

Institutional Constraints and Liquidity Provision in the Eurozone Core and Periphery Before and After Crises: A Preliminary Comparison of the Eurozone Crisis and the Coronavirus Pandemic

This paper presents a preliminary comparison of the Eurosystem response to the Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Crises with the onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic in 2020. It analyzes bank, national central bank (NCB), and government balance sheets to show the effect of ECB decisions to consrain or enable liquidity provision across the Eurozone, particularly along core and peripheral lines. It argues that these dynamics reflect Post-Keynesian theories of endogenous money, and the potential for monetary authorities to structurally influence liquidity preference and provision. As Eurozone governments debate whether to continue these practices, systemic liquidity crises that hurt financial and fiscal activity remain a risk at the time of writing.

L'Unione Europea e l'euro: crescere o perire

Il lavoro considera l'impatto dell'attuale crisi causata dal Covid-19 sull'Unione Europea. La risposta di politica economica è stata, rispetto alla crisi dei debiti pubblici, di ben diversa natura. Rimane ora il compito di rimediare ad alcune carenze nell'architettura istituzionale dell'Unione, e di completare il processo di unificazione, soprattutto tramite la costituzione di una fiscalità comune. L'alternativa è il perdurare degli squilibri economici e sociali che hanno attanagliato soprattutto l'area dell'euro sin da prima della crisi, e il rischio di fallimento dell'intera Unione.Alternate :The essay reflects on the impact of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 on the European Union. The economic policy response has been very different from that to the previous sovereign debts crisis. It is still necessary now to remedy some shortcoming of the institutional architecture of the Union, and to complete the unification process especially with the creation of a common taxation scheme and own revenues. The alternative implies a continuation of the social and economic disequilibria that since before the crisis have cursed the eurozone in particular. This might lead to the unfortunate failure of the Union.

Synchronization without similarity. The effects of COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth and inflation in the Eurozone

As the European Central Bank implements a common monetary policy for all member states, the effectiveness of the policy hinges upon the synchronization and similarity of inflation and GDP growth between them. We examine the consequences of COVID-19 outbreak for GDP growth and inflation of the Eurozone countries. We find that business cycles have been diverging since the aftermath of the Financial Crisis;however, the outbreak of COVID-19 brought about synchronization on a record scale. However, this increase in comovement is accompanied by an increase in the dissimilarity in the rates of GDP growth. Ergo, synchronization without similarity.

The politicisation of the European Central Bank and its emergency credit lines outside the Euro Area

Is the European Central Bank (ECB) increasingly acting on political – rather than technocratic – considerations? This question is of a central concern to students of European Union (EU) political economy. This article contributes to this debate by studying the ECB's credit lines to the central banks of EU member states outside the Euro Area during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Both times the ECB accorded selectively better borrowing conditions to some central banks. The article finds that its selection of who gets favourable borrowing terms has indeed become more political. In 2008, the ECB decided the credit terms based on technocratic criteria, but twelve years later, it granted better lending conditions to countries that were close to adopting the euro. How the ECB balances its mandate for price stability in the Euro Area and its role as a supranational EU institution decides whether it will become more politicised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Coronavirus and the social state: Austria in the pandemic

This chapter examines the chronology as well as the cause-and-effect of the evolution of the rule of law, state power, public health, and popular will in Austria. While some European Union (EU) states had enacted vaccine mandates for older residents, and other European countries required COVID-19 vaccines of health-care workers, Austria's more-or-less universal Impfpflicht for adults represented a new milestone in the EU amid the crises of the twenty-first century. In parliament as well as in the new and old media, the most prominent objectors to the vaccine mandate hailed from the populist nationalist-right Freedom Party of Austria. Starting in 2009, Austria faced its own share of the sovereign debt misery or eurozone crisis. Despite the Sturm, Drang, and sordid scandal of the last decade or so, Austria's Sozialstaat is neither down nor out. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

ASSESSING THE RESILIENCE OF UK'S ECONOMY AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BREXIT

The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of UK's economy towards two economic shocks: the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy in Q4 2019, in years 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the Brexit following the withdrawal of UK from the European Union on 31 January 2020. To assess the resilience of UK's economy, two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic and the Brexit (from Q1 1998 to Q4 2021) and not including the pandemic and the Brexit (from Q1 1998 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference the greater the resilience. Eurozone is used as benchmark. By subtracting the average forecasted 2022-2050 Eurozone quarterly GDP growth rate (annualized) obtained with the Q1 1998-Q4 2021 data, +2.93%, by the one obtained with the Q1 1998-Q3 2019 data, +1.59%, the difference is +1.33%, whereas with UK the difference is -2.33% [-0.24% - (-2.09%)]. Thus, Eurozone shows a greater resilience (+1.33%) than the UK (-2.33%) based on 2022-2050 forecasts. In addition, the authors pointed out that the average of the 2022-2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of the Eurozone is expected to be +2.93% with the 1998-2021 data whereas it is expected to be only -2.09% forUK The Eurozone economy shows better prospects than the UK economy © 2022, Online Journal Modelling the New Europe.All Rights Reserved.

What Is the European Central Bank Supposed to Do?

In July 2021, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a new monetary policy strategy, the first time in 17 years that it had undertaken a review of its monetary policy. In the intervening time, the world - and the economic challenges facing the ECB - have changed immensely but partly as a result of the ECB's own maneuvering. In particular, monetary policy has been relied upon for every single malaise facing the global economy, including and up to the coronavirus pandemic. This paper argues that a review of central banks as an institutional mechanism in general, and in particular the ECB, was overdue but should not have been limited to policies;instead, an opportunity was missed to have an institutional review to examine whether or not it has been performing as intended. In particular, the vast experiment of unconventional monetary policy/issuance should have been more scrutinized from an institutional level as it appears to have contributed to the current problems the European economy faces. Europe and the ECB would be well served by taking stock of its actions over the past two decades and especially during the era of unconventional monetary policy to find a sustainable route forward.

Diversification during Hard Times

Using a large sample of stocks from 48 developed and emerging markets over 1995 to 2021, we find evidence that suggests that international diversification is the best risk-reduction tool when all markets are considered. However, after the turn of the millennium, industrial diversification is the best alternative for funds limited to developed markets, especially when they are restricted to a region. Importantly, the benefits of diversification persist through hard times, such as the Asian financial crisis, the IT bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating their countercyclicality and proving their value when investors need them the most. © 2023 CFA Institute. All rights reserved.

The European Semester: An Ordoliberal Construct?

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have inflicted a decisive blow to ordoliberalism's influence on the economic governance of the Eurozone. This contribution shows that the decline of the ordoliberal ideas precedes the pandemic and can be traced in the management of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Drawing on the theoretical approach of sociological institutionalism and using insights from 18 interviews with participants in the Economic and Financial Committee and the ECOFIN, this article analyses the evolution of policy-makers' economic policy beliefs and their impact on the fiscal reform of 2010–2013. It is argued that the establishment of the European Semester was the institutional reflection of an intellectual shift from rules-based to institutions-based discipline. I find that the latter conflicts with core ordoliberal principles of the Freiburg economic school, opening the way for alternative institutional arrangements, such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility. © 2022 University Association for Contemporary European Studies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

LIVING STANDARD - HIPC

The paper presents some aspects about indicators related to the standard of living in the European Union in general. The indicators took into consideration were government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data, percentage of gross domestic product, harmonised indices of consumer prices, annual average index, harmonised indices consumer prices-monthly data, annual rate of change, and food price monitoring tool. The results showed an increase of government deficit in almost all European Union countries as well as an increase of the inflation rate especially for commodity products like food.